Sunday 15 April 2012

The 8th London Mayoral Election Twitter Poll



Poll findings
1) Well what a poll! As you can see there are two volume polls out today and no sentiment ones as yet. This is because I got a shock when I first did the poll as Siobhan Benita came out top in volume! Yes I know Boris and Ken's volumes are both down probably because it's the weekend but still it would have been the shock of the Twitter polling season. However on closer examination of the data it became clear that the total had been somewhat inflated by one tweeter so I'm introducing a limit to the tweets I count from each tweeter starting now.

I have applied it above with the adjusted graph so her volume figure falls from 756 to 483. I have checked the tweets of the the other candidates as well and no one else appears to be doing anything else similar. I don't think it was a deliberate attempt to skew the poll because it would have been the most rubbish attempt ever. 

2) In other news Ken's negatives have fallen below Boris's for the first time. This isn't going to totally undo the damage of recent times for Ken but it's an indication that the story is moving on.

3) Even with the adjustment Benita still got a higher volume than Ken for the first time today.

4)Brian and Jenny steady as they go I think.

5) UKIP and the BNP fail to make the cut. AGAIN.



Results

The adjusted figures


    Candidate Pos8 Neut8 Neg8 Tot8 
1       Ken Lab   95   232  125  452                   
2     Boris Con  158   266  224  648                   
3   Jenny Green   51    69   55  175           
4 Brian Lib Dem   61   111   67  239                  
5   Siobhan Ind                  483 


How does the poll work 

Tweets are collected from Twitter and then counted to give the volume figures and then they are classified by the sentiment package which is an addition to the R programming language I use for this. They're classified based on the content of the tweet. So something like "Love @mayoroflondon he's brilliant" would end up in the positive pile while "I'm going to rip Boris Johnson's ugly evil head off if no bus in 30secs" would end up in the negative pile. If it's not quite to obvious then there's the neutral category.

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