Friday 13 April 2012

The 6th London Mayoral Twitter Poll


Poll findings:
1) Another day on the campaign trail gone and Boris will be doing most of the smiling tonight. Not only did he get a bounce from banning the gay cure bus adverts his main rivals negatives are sticking out like a sore thumb. Again.

2) If I was to explain this apparent voter preference for Boris over Ken. I would say this. There are people on the left who hate Boris and the're people on the right who hate Ken but what I think the results are showing is that there is something of a likeability gap between Ken and Boris amongst people who aren't interested in politics. This is a problem for Ken. I suggest a cute puppy accompany him everywhere.

3)  Another good result for Siobhan Benita 3rd again in volume. Her negatives seemed to have joined the normal political race but she's still the most benignly viewed candidate on Twitter. I think my methodology does favour her a little bit at least compared to the ComRes poll question that didn't mention her. Where's she going to end up? I think the comedy candidate choice by the BNP is going to put them last. If your supporters are anti immigrant giving them an immigrant to vote for unless I'm missing something here isn't going to get them out to vote in vast numbers. Then I think you've got a band going from one of the candidates having a bad election on 3% to about 10% at the other end. In this scrum go UKIP, Greens, Lib Dems and Benita. Who comes out top? Who comes out bottom? Difficult to say but if she can keep bring home these impressive Twitter stats the chances of getting nearer the top of that band have got to increase.


4)
Jenny stayed much the same as yesterday but Brian seems to have dropped down a plughole in volume terms. Some way 5th can't be a comfortable place for Mr Paddick to storm to victory from


5) A rare appearence for Lawrence Webb of UKIP in the Twitter poll he had quite a few mentions of him going on various radio progammes and assorted media appearence and these were mostly classified as neutral. Sample size is really to small to read anything into it.





      Candidate Pos6 Neut6 Neg6 Tot6 Negpercent6 Pospercent6
1       Ken Lab  423  1043  930 2396          39          18
2     Boris Con  690   893  429 2012          21          34
3   Jenny Green   72   230   88  390          23          18
4 Brian Lib Dem   32   109   45  186          24          17
5   Siobhan Ind  239   413  176  828          21          29
6 Lawrence UKIP    0    52    4   56           7           0

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